If you've been watching mortgage rates this fall, you've probably felt your stomach drop at least once. In early October, Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 7.40%. A year ago, it was closer to 6.3%.
If you're hoping to buy a home in Celina, Prosper, Frisco, or McKinney, the natural question is whether to hit pause. Here's how I'd think it through.
What Changed This Fall
Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield has been climbing alongside stubborn inflation and a Federal Reserve rate hike in mid-September. The Fed meets again October 27–28, and most forecasters expect mortgage rates to hover around 7% through the end of the year.
In other words, a quick drop back to 6% isn't likely in the next few months.
What the Jump Actually Costs
Numbers make this less scary, so let's look at a real example. On a $450,000 loan with a 30-year fixed mortgage, here's the monthly principal and interest:
At 6.34% (about where rates were a year ago): $2,797
At 7.40% (early October 2026): $3,116
That's roughly $320 more per month. Property taxes, insurance, and HOA dues come on top of that, and in North Texas those can add up, so your full payment will be higher.
It's a real difference. It's also a manageable one for many buyers, especially once you factor in the incentives available right now.
When Waiting Makes Sense
Waiting can be the right call if:
The higher payment would stretch your budget to the limit
Your job or income situation is uncertain
You aren't planning to stay in the home for at least a few years
There's no prize for buying at the wrong time. If the numbers don't work for your life, pausing is a smart decision.
When Buying Now Makes Sense
Higher rates also create opportunities that disappear when rates fall.
Less competition. Every time rates rise, some buyers step back. That means fewer bidding wars and more room to negotiate on price, repairs, and closing costs.
Builder incentives. North DFW has a lot of new construction, and many builders are offering rate buydowns or help with closing costs to keep homes moving. These offers change often, so it pays to ask.
You can refinance later. You can't renegotiate the price. If rates come down in a year or two, you may be able to refinance into a lower payment. But if rates drop and buyers rush back into the market, prices and competition tend to rise with them. Refinancing does have costs and is never guaranteed, so only buy if the payment works for you today.
Smart Moves in a 7% Market
Get pre-approved and compare lenders. Rates and fees vary more than most people expect. Getting quotes from two or three lenders can save you real money.
Ask about buydowns. A temporary buydown lowers your rate for the first year or two. A permanent buydown (paying points) lowers it for the life of the loan. Sellers and builders will sometimes pay for either.
Budget at today's rate. Plan around the payment you'd have now, not the one you hope to have after a refinance.
Look at new construction. Builder incentives can sometimes offset much of the recent rate increase.
Watch your timeline, not the headlines. Daily rate swings matter less than whether the home, the payment, and the timing fit your life.
The Bottom Line
There's no perfect time to buy, only the right time for you. If you're thinking about a move in north DFW, I'd love to sit down with you, run your numbers, and help you weigh your options with no pressure.
Call or text 469-590-4275 or email kristenholan@cannonteam.com.
Kristen Holan, REALTOR | The Cannon Team at LPT Realty
Rates and payment figures reflect market conditions as of mid-October 2026 and are for illustration only. Your rate and payment will depend on your credit, down payment, and loan type. This post is not financial advice; please talk with a licensed lender about your situation.
